 TORONTO — According to Elliott Chodoff, an Israeli military analyst and Israel Defense Forces reserve major, his country’s doomsday clock has moved one tick closer to midnight.
Elliott Chodoff
Chodoff was in Toronto July 6 to speak at the Beth Tikvah Synagogue and share a message of caution with the 500 people who came to hear him. His talk was hosted by the Speakers Action Group and the Canadian Jewish Civil Rights Association. Israel faces its greatest existential threat since it fought to preserve its newfound independence in 1948, Chodoff said. With the looming possibility of a nuclear Iran, increasing signs of a new Hezbollah-instigated war in the north and Turkey now “facing the East,” he said, supporters of Israel must brace for a new conflict that could occur at any time. He said the prospect of a new war with Hezbollah is a “near certainty.” Over the last two months, the terror group has been attacking UNIFIL peacekeeping soldiers, “driving them back” from the Lebanese border, a sign the group is preparing to fight Israel again, he said. “Today, Israel has a de facto border with Iran… it’s called Hezbollah,” Chodoff said. “Hezbollah today has an arsenal of 8,000 rockets that can reach the Negev. We are also concerned they have chemical weapons,” although that intelligence is unconfirmed. Chodoff said there are two scenarios that could drag Israel into an immediate war. The first, which he called the “nursery school scenario,” posits that a rocket from Hezbollah or Hamas manages to land in a school, killing innocent children. “If that happens, Israel is at war that day,” he said. The second, or the “Imad Mugniyah” scenario – named after the senior member of Hezbollah who was killed by a car bomb in 2008 and whose death is blamed on Israel – would see a senior Israeli diplomat assassinated by Hamas or Hezbollah. “If they succeeded in doing this, we’re at war,” Chodoff said. “These are the things Israelis hope they don’t wake up to in the morning.” Speaking about the May 31 Gaza flotilla incident, Chodoff led with some gallows humour. “I like to look at the positive. [Israel] is now the destination of choice for a whole new cruise line,” he said to laughter from the audience. He stressed that the blockade of Gaza is strategically important for two reasons. The first is to prevent Hamas from re-arming. While not foolproof, he said, the blockade is “keeping a lid” on the terrorist organization’s weapons build-up. The second is that the blockade prevents Hamas from transporting captured Israeli soldier Gilad Schalit. “Hamas wants to get Schalit on a boat to Iran, where Israel would never get to him” and this cannot be allowed to happen, he said. As for the worldwide effort to delegitimize Israel, Chodoff sees the radicalization of the Turkish regime as one of the worst omens for the Jewish state. Though Turkey has a huge secular population, he said that “[Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip] Erdogan understands that he can rally people of disparate beliefs by using Israel and Jews as scapegoats” to garner support for his new Iran-friendly policies. Chodoff then launched into a humour-filled take on Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. “I like Ahmadinejad. I really do,” he said. “I like honest murderers. It makes my job as an analyst easier. Because when he says he wants to destroy Israel, he means it. He isn’t saying anything the Iranian regime wasn’t thinking since 1979. He just has a big mouth.” Chodoff then warned the crowd that what he would say next was no joke. Invoking the spectre of nuclear war, he said Israel could not survive a nuclear strike. “This is the reality. We know it, and they know it.” He said allowing Iran to acquire nuclear weapons is not an option for Israel, since the likelihood of a nuclear strike on the country would become “a near certainty.” “No responsible Israeli government can allow this. Which means unless the world does something – and it won’t – the likelihood Israel will strike Iran is high. But Israel wants to be able to say it exhausted every other alternative solution first before attacking Iran,” he said. In closing, Chodoff said he believes Israel is looking “at an immediate future that is very dangerous.” | 
