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Canada will lead G7 growth: IMF That's despite what a barometer of Canadian economic activity suggests is a slowdown in the pace of growth. Scotiabank, in its global economic outlook, added "Canada is expected to remain the top G7 performer through 2004," The forecasts were released as Statistics Canada reported its leading indicator, a basket of 10 key sectors of economic activity that tend to foreshadow the overall direction of the economy, rose 0.2 per cent last month, down from 0.3 per cent in July and continuing a slowdown that began in April. "The slowdown in the leading indicator over the past several months points to slower real GDP growth in the second half of 2004" said J.P. Morgan Canada economist Ted Carmichael. Still, Scotiabank in its forecast said growth would average 3.4 per cent this year, a full percentage point above that in the U.S. Next year the pace of growth will be three per cent, which should also be enough to edge out the U.S., it said. That's in line with the IMF, which forecast growth here of 3.4 per cent this year, nearly a full point more than it expected in the spring, and 3.4 per cent again next year. That's faster than the growth in the U.S., the second most rapidly expanding G7 country, which the IMF forecasts will grow by a "considerably weaker than earlier thought" 2.2 per cent this year and 2.6 per cent in 2005. |
